Americans traveling on vacation this Fourth of July holiday weekend willdecrease 1.9 percent from 2008 with approximately 37.1 million travelerstaking a trip of 50 or more miles away from home. Last year, 37.8 millionAmericans traveled during the same period, a 10.5 percent decline from the42.3 million travelers who vacationed in 2007. The July 4th holiday istypically the busiest time of year for auto travel since nearly allschool-aged children are out of school at this time and, as a result,parents are more apt to take family vacations at this time.

"Many Americans remain cautious about the outlook for their personalfinances and these attitudes are reflected in the slight decline in travelwe are forecasting for the upcoming holiday weekend," said Robert L.Darbelnet, AAA President & CEO. "Those who do vacation this summer willfind a plethora of attractive discounts and special offers resulting insome outstanding vacation values. If you can afford to go, this summer isa smart time to travel."

AAA said the projected slight decline in leisure travel is mainly due toongoing uncertainty about the strength of the economy, especially risingjoblessness and sagging personal incomes. The recent rise in gasolineprices may also be causing some travelers to limit or abbreviate theirholiday plans, although its impact on overall vacation costs remainsminimal. "While gasoline prices have increased in the last several months,in recent days they have leveled off and compared to this time last yearprices are substantially lower," said AAA-Texas Corporate CommunicationsManager Dan Ronan in Irving. Go to fuelgaugereport.com for the latest ongas prices in your community.

Air travel to increase, while auto travel dips

Although air travel will account for only five percent of July 4th leisuretravel, the industry is expected to see a 4.9 percent increase in leisuretravel bookings this holiday due to declining airfares and pent up demandfrom those who have not taken a vacation trip by air in some time. Twomillion person trips are expected by air. Last July 4th air travel declinedsteeply, so this year's rebound is significant.

Although fuel prices remain much lower than they were one year ago, therelatively steep price increase since May will dampen consumer enthusiasmfor road trips. AAA projects a 2.6 percent decline in auto trips from 33.4million last year to 32.6 million in 2009. More attractive airfares alsowill contribute to the decline in auto travel.

Trips by other/multi modes, including air/auto combinations, rail, busesand watercraft, will be the dominant means of travel used by an estimated2.5 million Americans, or 7 percent of all travelers.

Average spending will top $1,150 and average distance traveled will be 614miles

Fourth of July travelers expect to spend approximately $1,160 per householdthis upcoming holiday weekend. Texans are expected to spend about $1,538per family. Transportation and accommodations will account for about halfof trip spending, while food and beverage absorbs another 20 percent of theholiday budget. Shopping, entertainment and recreation will account forthe remaining 30 percent of spending on average.

Gasoline prices are up substantially since May, but are still much lowerthan they were at this time last year. This should encourage sometravelers to drive long distances over the holiday weekend. Fourth of Julytravelers will log an average of 614 miles roundtrip this upcoming holidayweekend. Over one third (38%) of travelers will stay relatively close tohome, with expected round trips of under 250 miles. One third of weekendtravelers will log between 250 and 700 miles. And 28 percent will travelover 700 miles round trip.

Airfare and lodging costs will be lower

According to AAA's Leisure Travel Index -- a monitor of pricing in 20popular cities across the US for hotel and car rentals, as well as 40 pairsof cities for air travel pricing -- the lowest average published airfaresover the July 4 holiday weekend are expected to decrease 16 percent fromlast year as air passengers will pay as little as $169. From February 2009through June 2009, the lowest fares have been less than the same timeframein 2008.

Holiday Forecast Approach

In cooperation with AAA, IHS Global Insight has developed a unique approachto forecasting actual travel that explicitly considers current economicconditions, past July 4th holiday travel trends and behavior, and therecent assessment of pre-holiday American travel intentions derived from asurvey of 2,700 American households.

The intentions figures act as a leading indicator, but do not constitutethe forecast itself. Instead, travel intentions overlay other key traveldrivers along with past trends in an effort to project what Americans willactually do this coming July 4. The approach recognizes Americans do notalways behave as they say they will.

The actual travel figures come from the ongoing travel panel database ofD.K. Shifflet & Associates, the premier source of American travel volumeand behavior. DKSA interviews over 50,000 American households per month inan effort to track trip incidence, composition, behavior, and spending… allafter the trips have been taken.

Regional holiday trip forecasts are strongly influenced by the economicconditions that exist in each market. The pain associated with currenteconomic conditions is of course not evenly distributed throughout thecountry. Relative strength in the Mountain Region (ID, MT, WY, NV, UT, CO,AZ and NM) for example, is reflected in our expectations for higher thanaverage Independence Day weekend travel. It will be quite the opposite forthe New England and East South Central regions.

AAA's projections are based on research conducted by IHS Global Insight.The Boston-based economic research and consulting firm teamed with AAAearlier this year as part of an agreement to jointly analyze travel trendsduring the major holidays. AAA has been reporting on holiday travel trendsfor more than two decades. The complete AAA / IHS Global Insight 2009 July4th holiday forecast can be found at AAA.com/news.

As North America's largest motoring and leisure travel organization, AAAprovides more than 51 million members with travel, insurance, financial andautomotive-related services. Since its founding in 1902, thenot-for-profit, fully tax-paying AAA has been a leader and advocate for thesafety and security of all travelers. AAA clubs can be visited on theInternet at AAA.com.